Ground-mounted utility scale solar PV power systems continued to clearly dominate the solar space in 2019 – and this won’t change until 2024. The segment had a share of around 64% last year, which is anticipated to hike to 69% in 2021, and then remain flat at around 68% for the coming years.

The slight ‘weakness‘ of utility-scale solar in 2019 is in direct relation to the market developments in China and India. Both world leading markets have been strongholds of ground-mounted PV power plants. While the termination of the feed-in tariffs for large-scale power plants in May 2018 in China resulted in immediate market contraction, it also directly had a positive impact on rooftop PV. This development continued in 2019 when solar demand in China fell even steeper. Still, close to 60% of the solar capacity added in China last year were utility-scale power plants. The other leading market that disappointed last year was India, where the bulk of the total installed capacity are ground-mounted power plants. Less PV demand in India meant less utility-scale power plants for the world. On the other hand, the United States, as the world’s No. 2 PV market, saw increasing demand in 2019, mostly driven by a year-end deadline for the 30% ITC, which primarily triggered investments in utility-scale PV capacities.

However, deploying large volumes of utility-scale solar is much simpler to deploy than creating a distributed PV rooftop market, which requires a substantial period of time and a lot of effort to educate consumers, while setting up an effective platform with the right financing instruments and technical standards. That’s why emerging markets usually begin their solar chapter with tenders for utility-scale solar and frequently struggle to set up the distributed rooftop segment, even if politicians generally prefer PV on roofs which they consider the natural place for the technology as it avoids any potential conflicts on land use. A good example for such a development is India, which targets 100 GW of solar by 2022, with 40 GW coming from rooftop solar. But of the 35.7 GWAC total of solar power capacity installed by the end of 2019, only 4.4 GWAC were rooftop systems—the vast majority (88%) was utility-scale PV power plants. The Indian Government had approved 1.7 billion USD under its Sustainable Rooftop Implementation for Solar Transfiguration of India (SRISTI) programme in 2018 to accelerate the installation of rooftop solar. Instead, an economic slowdown had pulled that rooftop solar down, resulting in the first decline for the small segment in five years in India.

Two relatively recent solar feed-in tariff hot-spots and new GW-scale markets, Vietnam and Ukraine, have been also focusing on utility-scale solar, whereas the European country’s net metering programme has been nurturing a small rooftop market as well. However, even the most advanced solar rooftop market, Australia, with more than 2.3 million solar homes, has recently been leaning towards utility-scale solar. Though less than the year before, half of the 4.4 GW were solar farms.

Even in long-established solar markets like Europe a recent renaissance of ground-mount systems can be witnessed. The trend to tenders has been providing the grounds for a big wave of ground-mount PV plants, like in Spain, but even in Holland, one of Europe’s most densely populated countries, there is a boom for ground-mount installations, though land issues limit growth. The cost competitiveness of solar enabling merchant/PPA solar systems also drives the growth of the ground-mount segment. Europe’s very sunny and spacious countries Spain and Portugal have multi-gigawatt pipelines for such PV power plants.